Well, that’s certainly an interesting development. On Wednesday, the US Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, unveiled on April 2, are illegal.
My initial reactions are: OK great! Can we all now get on with our lives and pretend it was all a bad dream?
Hmm, not quite.
Trump will likely lash out at the courts and further threaten the legitimacy of institutions, but, more importantly, it will immensely weaken his negotiating position on trade deals. The timing of the ruling is comical at best, just as Trump and the EU are engaged in fierce trade negotiations.
Last week, Trump had threatened 50 per cent tariffs for June 9 in order to put pressure on the bloc to strike a deal.
If the EU are wise, they should utilise the court ruling to either get Trump to back down, or offer very little concessions.
The court ruling specifically affects the tariffs announced on “Liberation Day”, which include the baseline 10 per cent levies and the “divided by 2” formula, but does NOT affect the more targeted sectoral tariffs on car and steel imports.
This is important because the ruling will embolden Trump to impose more targeted tariffs on specific sectors, which is something he probably should’ve done in the first place to achieve his initial trade goals.
Trump has been known to back off when the going gets tough. He backed down when US Treasury yields climbed, due to a lack of investor demand for US debt, which increases the cost of US borrowing and Trump certainly didn’t like that.
He thus suppressed his criticism of Fed chair Jay Powell and struck immaterial trade “deals” with the UK and China.
Shortly after “Liberation Day”, when markets reacted badly to the “reciprocal” tariffs, Trump backed down and imposed a 90-day break. But, how will Trump react to the court ruling? I don’t see a world where Trump keeps quiet and accepts the ruling, given that tariffs are so central to his negotiating position.
This is because, at the moment, the court ruling has crystalised the Trump bluff on tariffs and will inspire America’s trading partners to be firmer and tougher.
At the Bullion Brief, we like to look at the bigger picture.
What does the bigger picture look like? The court ruling is definitely a win for globalisation and a nudge in the right direction of “normality” whatever that means now.
But, I think this has emboldened Trump to utilise targeted tariffs more now that it is permissible in the eyes of the law.
He will thrash, smash, and lash at anyone who undermines him and you best believe that includes the courts and the lawmakers. Pair this up with a shaky US Treasury market that has proven its ability to make Trump wince.
Even the “big beautiful bill”, estimated to increase US spending by over $3tn over a decade, has faced criticism from loyal Trump administration lieutenant Elon Musk, who has since stepped down from the Department of Government Efficiency. One can’t help but feel like the president is being backed into a corner but how will he react?
Will he cower or will he fight back harder than ever further destabilising financial markets?
Stay tuned folks because this is far from over.
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